The Florida Market Has Turned: Why Waiting is Now the Wrong Move

by Blaine Wyker

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the Florida real estate market to crash, I have some tough news: You missed the bottom, which was around October-November of 2025.

We are seeing a definitive shift in Central Florida right now. The "freeze" of 2024 and 2025 is thawing rapidly, and the momentum has swung back in favor of sellers. If you are looking to buy a single-family home, the "wait and see" strategy is getting dangerous.

Here is the honest truth about what is happening on the ground in January 2026.

1. The "Lock-In" Effect is Breaking

For two years, nobody wanted to relocate because they didn't want to trade a 3% mortgage rate for an 8% one. That era is over.

The Stat: For the first time, the share of mortgages with rates above 6% is higher than the share of mortgages below 3%.
The Result: Homeowners are finally moving. They’ve accepted the "new normal" of rates around 6%, unlocking a wave of pent-up activity.

2. Buyer Demand is Exploding

While many buyers are still reading headlines about a "slowdown," the actual data shows a frenzy.

Pending Sales: In Orlando, pending sales (homes going under contract) surged by nearly 25% in January alone.
Bidding Wars are Back: We aren't seeing the insanity of 2021, but we are seeing multiple offers on move-in ready homes. If a house is priced right and has a good roof, it is moving fast.

3. The "Tale of Two Markets" (Don't Get Fooled)

Headlines might say inventory is up, but you have to look closer.

Single-Family Homes: Inventory is tight. In desirable suburbs like Altamonte Springs or Winter Garden, we are seeing less than 4 months of supply—firmly a seller's market.
Condos: This is the only place prices are soft. Due to new safety laws and reserve requirements (SIRS), condo inventory has ballooned to a 14-month supply [],. Warning: Be very careful buying a condo right now unless you know the reserves are fully funded.

4. Insurance is Finally Helping

The nightmare of doubling premiums is receding. Governor DeSantis announced that Citizens Property Insurance rates are dropping by an average of 8.7% starting this spring, and private carriers are following suit. This puts money back in buyers' pockets, increasing their purchasing power.

The Bottom Line

If you are buying a single-family home, the window of "easy negotiating" has closed. The Spring 2026 market started in January.

Sellers: You are back in the driver's seat. If your home is turnkey, you can push for top dollar.
Buyers: Stop waiting for a crash that isn't coming. Use tools like Escalation Clauses to win multiple-offer situations without overpaying.

The market is moving. Are you?